Can Lower Carbon Aviation Fuels (LCAF) Really Complement Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) towards EU Aviation Decarbonization?

The present work provides an analysis of the potential impact fossil-based Low Carbon Aviation Fuels (LCAF) for European aviation sector, with a time horizon to 2050. LCAF are crude-derived alternative kerosene, offering some Green House Gas (GHG) savings, and have been defined by ICAO as eligible fuels mitigating environmental aviation. A methodological framework evaluate EU technical production is developed, based on data crude utilization jet fuel in refineries, relevant carbon intensity reduction technologies, market prices, volumes. Two different baselines fossil-derived kerosene (CI) considered: global figure 89 gCO2e/MJ EU-27-specific one 93.1 gCO2eq/MJ. Three scenarios considering increasing levels CI then defined, taking into account current commercial availability most technologies. demonstrates that, even if could offer GHG saving opportunities, their possible impact, especially when compared ambition level set recent legislative proposals, very limited analysed scenarios, exception ambitious ones. At 2030, non-zero projected only higher scenario, ranging between 1.8% 14.2% share EU-27 (equal 0.6 4.75 Mtoe), depending considered Baseline CI. 2050, almost all project larger potential, 6.9% 22.2% (2.21 7.13 16.2% (0.58 5.2 Mtoe). additional costs also discussed, given relevance large-scale deployment these range 39 46.8 USD/toe.